I know Aloha, ATA, and Skybus are through. What airlines are likley to come to the same fate in the near future? Near future meaning from today to about 2015. Are these airlines likley?
Southwest, Hawaiian, Alaska, US Airways, United, Delta.?
Thanks!
Also, I heard Aloha Airlines is trying to come back. Is is true?
With the shut down of ATA and Aloha, Hawaiian has strengthened its position in the pacific, so it's unlikely that they will suffer the same fate. As for Aloha making a comeback, no. They are finished. The cargo division is, however, still in operation. It and the ground services division are going to be sold off and the company dissolved as a whole.
Delta and Northwest are sparring over a merger, that will probably take place. If it doesn't, then both of those airlines are in trouble. US Airways was recently acquired by the Phoenix based America West, which then discarded its name in favor of US Airways since it has a much longer history. They've been restructuring, so they look solid.
United has been on shaky ground for quite some time. If they don't remove some of the older aircraft from the fleet, and trim some of the expenses they have, they might be in trouble, too.
Southwest has been profitable nearly every single year of their existance, they even negotiate their fuel prices (as do most airlines) years in advance, so they will most likely be around on your target date.
There are two that I think are having some issues. Spirit, who flys mostly older aircraft, and Frontier. Frontier recently sold off four aircraft (but leased them back), which usually means they needed to liquidate assets in order to tap into the cash value of them. That normally means that an airline is in cash flow trouble when they do that.
I'm not up on Alaska's position right now, but if the past is any indicator, they lasted this long with minimal hiccups (except for the crash in the Pacific and subsequent safety investiagions), so they'll probably be around on your target date.
The truth of the matter is that airlines are seriously affected by not only fuel prices, but the economy. If less people are travelling because they can't afford to make the house payment, then that is revenue that the airlines were counting on that won't be there. Any of the airlines at any time could falter depending on public perception of safety, fuel prices, and look at what happened on 9/11 - NO ONE flew anywhere. I was practically by myself two days after they lifted the flight ban because people were afraid to fly. Throw in the unions that strangle them every so often, and if any one or two of these things happen at once, then its all over for any of them (except for maybe Southwest). Toss in an airplane disaster and bam, its shut-down time.
So, there is no single predictor that points to an airline's promise to be around, its highly volitile and a struggle everyday.